I very rarely get involved in politics, but I’ll make an exception for this case as I found the numbers fascinating and haven’t seen them reported elsewhere. Feel free to skip over it if politics isn’t your thing. If politics is your thing, hop on over to the Politics board on DDF!
Yesterday, Ohio’s heavily gerrymandered 11th district voted in a special primary election to nominate a replacement in the House of Representatives for HUD secretary Marcia Fudge.
The 11th district is Ohio’s deepest blue district, so the Democratic nominee is all but guaranteed to go onto victory in November.
Nina Turner, who was the national co-chair for Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign, was heavily favored to win the district, with polls just 2 months ago showing her up by some 35%. She won the endorsement of Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson and the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
But there are some 100,000 Jews in Ohio’s 11th district and Turner managed to alienate many of them with her anti-Israel rhetoric and promises to join the Squad.
The city of Beachwood, my hometown and location of DansDeals Headquarters, has one of the greatest number of Jews per capita in the world, outside of Israel.
Residents got the word out with in-person fundraisers with the candidate and signs everywhere to coalesce and vote for Shontel Brown, who was proving Nina Turner’s strongest competition among the field of 13 Democratic candidates. While Ms. Turner was calling for sanctions against Israel, Ms. Brown condemned the Hamas attacks and spoke out against BDS.
Ohio has open primaries, so you can decide at the polls if you want to vote for the Democratic or Republican primary.
And despite the polls heavily favoring Ms. Turner, the large turnout among the most heavily populated Jewish cities located to the east of Cleveland turned the tide of the race.
Turnout for the special primary election in many parts of the city of Cleveland was less than 10%, but heavily Jewish districts in Cleveland’s eastern suburbs had turnout as high as 38% of registered voters, which is a record high there for a special primary election:
While mail-in ballots have yet to be counted, Shontel Brown managed to upset Nina Turner with a margin of some 4,200 votes:
Where did the votes come from?
I did a dive into the votes from some of the heavily Jewish cities in Ohio’s 11th district:
Beachwood:
Brown: 2,438 (81%)
Turner: 572 (19%)
Margin for Brown: 1,866
In the most heavily religious Jewish precincts, Beachwood A went to Brown with 338 votes (91.1%) over Turner with 33 votes and Beachwood B went to Brown with 358 votes (89.7%) over Turner with 41 votes. About 42% of votes in these precincts were for Trump in 2020, but only 17 people voted for the Republican primary ticket yesterday.
University Heights:
Brown: 1,366
Turner: 795
Margin for Brown: 571
In the most heavily religious Jewish precincts, University Heights H went to Brown with 357 votes (88.4%) over Turner with 47 votes and University Heights I went to Brown with 262 votes (88.2%) over Turner with 35 votes. About 58% of votes in these precincts were for Trump in 2020, but only 26 people voted for the Republican primary ticket yesterday.
Cleveland Heights 4B, 4D, and 4G:
Brown: 688
Turner: 216
Margin for Brown: 472
In these heavily Jewish populated precincts in one of Cleveland’s largest suburbs, some 76% of votes went to Ms. Brown. Unlike the other cities in this post, these numbers only include the precincts with a high Jewish population. The majority of votes in this city as a whole went to Ms. Turner.
Pepper Pike:
Brown: 863
Turner: 260
Margin for Brown: 603
This suburb is heavily populated with non-religious Jews. Some 76.8% of the vote went to Ms. Brown.
Orange:
Brown: 494
Turner: 117
Margin for Brown: 377
Shaker Heights:
Brown: 3,387
Turner: 2,637
Margin for Brown: 750
South Euclid:
Brown: 1,539
Turner: 1,279
Margin for Brown: 260
Sure enough, Brown’s margin of 4,899 votes from these Cleveland suburbs contributed more than her entire margin of victory.
Ms. Brown thanked her “Jewish brothers and sisters” and expressed support for the US-Israel relationship in her victory speech last night:
During her #OH11 victory speech, @ShontelMBrown thanks “my Jewish brothers and sisters” and expresses support for the U.S. Israel relationship. pic.twitter.com/tPvIKDPBFp
— Jewish Insider (@J_Insider) August 4, 2021
I’m proud to be a 6th generation Clevelander, unapologetic supporter of Israel, and this is how it’s done #CLEStrong
Yasher Koach!
Nina’s Twitter (which you linked) sadly has so many far-left wing secular Jews who’ll stand with Palestinian terrorists, Adolf Hitler, and any Jew- hater that exists on this planet. When you turn Tishabav into a day of “freeing” undocumented individuals, Yom Kippur into a day of “cleaning the earth” of roadside liter and trash, and believe Pesach is simply a day where all you do is eat Gluten Free— it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Nina received much of the secular Jewish vote. The efforts of the Orthodox communities should be proud of their victory.
Except this isn’t true. Even Cleveland’s non-religious Jewish community voted heavily for Brown and helped make the difference.
Jewish Clevelanders of all stripes heavily favored Brown.
I understand where you’re coming from, but here in Cleveland, it just didn’t turn out that way. As Dan’s post indicates, the non-Orthodox Jews in Cleveland came out heavily in favor for Brown as well, alongside the Orthodox. As someone who lives here, it is not surprising to see the secular Jewish vote go this way. Cleveland’s non-Orthodox Jewish community is relatively affiliated, and staunchly pro-Israel. Definitely proud to be a Jewish Clevelander today. Thanks for the write-up Dan!
Your comments and generalizations are quite offensive to this Orthodox Jew.
Ahavas Yisroel is not limited to frum Jews; does the phrase, dos pintele Yid mean nothing to you?
Does the nearly 80% intermarriage rate mean anything to you?
+ I’ll add (from an Orthodox Jew myself, with some extended non-Jewish cousins), 1. Many secular Jews, especially from the Reform and Reconstructionist movements are not halachically Jewish at all. 2. I was originally referring to the many Twitter postings by “If Not Now” and “J Street” absolutely degrading the pro-Israel candidate. + in our local NJ paper, Reform Rabbi Clifford Kulwin (and son Noah Kulwin) consistently throw dirty articles about Israel, marrying Jewish, and keeping halachic values. Look them up. I stand by my opinion that if Haman HaRasha was running for a leadership position in 2021, most Jews would vote for him. *That’s* the type of Jews (or Halachically gentile individuals ) I’m referring to
Dan I doubt you’ll have the courage to post this but what is your stance on DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion)?
While the rest of America is forced to comply with whatever a small minority defines as DEI, your post, fundraisers, etc. seem to only include the Jewish community, which seems antithetical to the principles upon which this nation was founded. It smacks of preservation of the Jewish community to the exclusion of everyone else.
Everyone votes in their own best interest. That’s as American as apple pie.
its hard to disagree with this take imho
How many mail in ballots were received?
TBD, but they won’t make a difference in the outcome.
I’ve heard that one before
lol
There are no mail-in ballots left. They were all counted yesterday (their totals were released first). The only ballots left are the military mail-ins, which by law can arrive a few days late. There will be a few dozen of these, tops.
The same thing just happened in crown heights. There was a democrat primary for nyc council. 1 of the frontrunners was also an anti semitic and part of the DSA. The lubavitchers in ch changed their registration to democrat to vote in the primary for crystal hudson. Bc of the lubavitchers crystal Hudson won the primary, she didn’t win by much, under a thousand votes
1) How many mail in ballots are left?
2) With such a serious issue as this, how come not amore like a 75% turnout of jewish voters?
Because it was a weirdly-timed primary for a special election with literally nothing else on the ballot.
2) It’s because it’s August in an odd year- there isn’t even supposed to be an election now. It was only a primary, and it was for a special election at a time when there usually isn’t one. Turnout would have been dramatically lower if not for the Jewish vote.
New York for Eric Adams and now Ohio
WSJ article on the election mentioned the support of the “Congressional Black Caucus’s PAC and several pro-Israel organizations” as well as “It’s majority African-American but also includes the state’s largest population of Jewish Americans. Income levels vary widely, from high levels of poverty in East Cleveland, where average annual income was under $21,000, to nearby Beachwood, where the average income was more than $89,000, according to 2019 Census figures.”
Wow! Thanks for sharing. We are proud of you.
This goes to show how a lot happens on the local level.
The fact that a Democrat can publicly support Israel’s right to exist and defend itself and still win , gives me hope.
although I’m not sure making Israel the central argument for election is a smart move for the Jewish people.
No democrat said that Israel doesn’t have the right to exist. Nina Turner condemned the BDS movement and Hamas. The Jewish Communities of Cleveland were bombarded with misinformation.
https://www.dansdeals.com/more/dans-commentary/breakdown-clevelands-jewish-community-denied-favored-squad-member-seat-congress/comment-page-1/#comment-1540458
What about Cleveland heights
Cleveland Heights is a large city, so the Jews are a relatively small proportion.
Correct, but I’ve just added the Jewish precincts of Cleveland Heights to reflect those votes.
Amazing work
Well done. More Jewish communities need to rally to make our voices heard by exercising our voting bloc power and voting for people that care about our issues.
Thank G-d she was stopped. A blatant ant-Semite. Here is what the NY Post reports Turner said in her election concession speech.
“I am going to work hard to ensure that something like this doesn’t happen to another progressive candidate again,” Turner vowed in her concession speech. “We didn’t lose this race, evil money manipulated and maligned this election.” (see: https://nypost.com/2021/08/04/shontel-brown-defeats-sen-nina-turner-in-ohio-house-democratic-primary/).
Further the NY Post reports:
“Brown also received crucial backing from a pair of Democratic pro-Israel organizations: the Pro-Israel America PAC and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, the latter of which plowed nearly $2 million into the race.”
So the conclusion my landsmen is we must stick together and we must vote. Dan pointed out there was a good turnout for a Primary. In areas, where primary winners are going to win the general election hands down, we must have a better turnout than 40%. If you don’t vote, don’t complain!! Take the fight to the ballot box!!
Typical anti-semitic dog whistle by Turner in a speech that almost made Trump look like a gracious loser. She blames Jewish money when she was receiving the most out of state money (at least as of a few weeks ago).
https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/07/nina-turner-leads-shontel-brown-in-fundraising-as-out-of-state-money-bolsters-both-congressional-campaigns.html
Why is anyone that is against Israel automatically an anti-semite? Ridiculous
They just seem not to mind jewish children getting stabbed in bed but cry when hamas doesn’t evacuate children when the odd is nice enough to let them know that they will blow up a building.
You’re really dramatically “oversimplifying” this, to the point of absurdity.
In her case, other than the media claiming she would “join the squad”, whatever that means, she in no way indicated that she wanted any harm to any of our brethren in Israel. The Jewish Insider published an interview with her, which seemed quite reasonable, though, of course, not fanatically pro-Zionist.
Link, if allowed: https://jewishinsider.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/18170852/2021-Ohio-11th-Candidate-Questionnaire-Nina-Turner.pdf
“…join the squad whatever that means…”. If you don’t know what that means, you are part of the problem.
Because many people believe the Zionist lies that Israel is the Jewish State. So, if you are against the supposedly “Jewish State” then that doesn’t seem very pro-Jewish. As it happens, I didn’t see anything from her that indicates that she is against the Zionist State, only that she *gasp* feels that aid to that State should be conditional just as it is for any other state to which this country gives aid.
a post starting off with Zionist lies, I am not surprised it is anon.
Ninas opponent received money from the oil and gas industry, big pharma drug companies, top Trump allies, Fox News, Wall Street, and Republican super PACs. She was propped out by evil money
Is the Congressional Black Caucus that supported Ms. Brown also evil money?
Or are just the causes you don’t like considered evil?
She was backed by the CBC? Not in Ohio, so I have no dog in the fight, but looking at the current members, this will probably end up with the candidate ignoring their black constituents while being an ally to every other group, happy that they have a “seat at the table” and can be a picture of “representation.” Again, I can’t speak to any of the candidates, but if she is like the others, good luck to the black community in OH11 if she wins. *shrugs*
Do your research?
https://cbcpac.org/uploads/pdf/CONGRESSIONAL-BLACK-CAUCUS-PAC-ENDORSES-SHONTEL-BROWN-FOR-CONGRESS.pdf
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/07/congressional-black-caucus-ohio-special-election-498596
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/02/ohio-special-election-nina-turner-shontel-brown-502060
I have been seeing the post attacking the eastern suburbs trending all day on twitter. They are proud of their antisemitism and hate.
Mail ballots were counted already.
Great story. As we know the core members of the squad AOC, Tlaib, Omar all enemies of Israel. All anti semites
It’s still frightening so many people, Jewish or not, would vote for someone who wants to take everything they’ve worked for away from them.
I love this! Thank you so much for posting this Dan, brought a slice of hope and happiness to my day. Am Yisrael Chai!!
And thank you for commenting 🙂
This is why I enjoy your writings so much Dan! Bravo to the Jewish communities who got out the vote against such madness.
Hopefully the progressives will take a kicking in the midterm elections. I don’t mean republicans over dems. I just mean voting out the ultra progressive squad types.
Mail ballots were already counted. The only ones possibly left are from overseas military, which by law can arrive a few days late. There are maybe a few dozen of these, and they won’t have any impact.
It wasn’t worth mentioning the millions of dollars poured into Brown’s campaign by a pro-Israel PAC for ad buys, etc.? That probably had a bigger impact than the grassroots stuff.
There were even more millions poured into Turner’s campaign. Grassroots was the X factor IMHO.
https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/07/nina-turner-leads-shontel-brown-in-fundraising-as-out-of-state-money-bolsters-both-congressional-campaigns.html
It was clearly grassroots. It was insane the number of Shontel signs that were up (many on non jewish lawns). Keep in mind Turner also compared voting for Biden to eating dog feces. So not even sure how she ran as a democrat when an independent named Bernie was her biggest support. Shontel’s win is a win for establishment dems vs the new age socialists who really are mostly confused about what they really stand for.
Except that Turner ended up with more money poured into her campaign, and still lost… so that clearly wasn’t the deciding factor at all.
Turner received more most out of state money (at least as of a few weeks ago).
https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/07/nina-turner-leads-shontel-brown-in-fundraising-as-out-of-state-money-bolsters-both-congressional-campaigns.html
Solid reporting – thanks dan!
As usual. 🙂
Dan is even-kiltered as anything.
Interesting and useful analysis Dan!
I don’t know if it was the deciding factor in the race, but there was a similar effort underway in the observant Jewish communities in NYC getting Adams the nomination over Maya Wiley. He crushed it in Boro Park, Midwood, CH etc.
Israel issues aren’t as important for a mayoral race compared to Congress, but had she become mayor, she would likely use it as a springboard for higher office. Especially with Cuomo going down in flames and no one caring about De Blasio, the next NYC mayor might become the 3rd biggest power player in NY politics (after Schumer and Gillibrand) by default
Isn’t it safe to say that because Ohio has very strict and good voting laws that these things can make a difference , rather than what happened in the 2020 elections were certain States have the power to manipulate the vote by harvesting and dumping mail in ballots
No, it is not.
Nope, the Republican led states like Georgia and Arizona which decided the 2020 elections didn’t manipulate anything. There’s unlimited evidence against what you’re saying and none to support it so it’s probably time you move on.
Thanks for sharing!
Kol Hakavod
Nice!
Now Cutis Sliwa and his cohorts are going to complain we vote as a block and control the world
Which community of like minded people doesn’t vote as a block? And how is voting for your own interests a block anyway?
He is 100% wrong. This is the right way to do it. I am just commenting on the fact that this is what Sliwa was complaining about.
Curtis Sliva judges our community by a different standard.
Wow! I’m so proud of the Jewish Vote! I love these articles, keep them coming, they put a smile on my face every time (unlike the ones reporting new Israeli restrictions ☹).
There was a similar story last year in Toms River, NJ, in the race for mayor. Mo Hill, who had stood up against hate and had the support of the frum community, won by a smaller margin than the Jewish vote. Had his opponent, former Ocean County Prosecutor Joe Coronato, not alienated the Jewish community, he would be mayor now.
Oh, if only the Repubs would vote down the Jew haters Bobert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Rand Paul, McCarthy . . .
I support them unconditionally..
Because you don’t have a problem with actual anti-semites, you only have a problem with anti-zionists. Maybe try being against anyone who is bigoted rather than supporting racist people who are zionists because you think it helps Israel in the short-term. Don’t be surprised when these racists you support also support those who are truly anti-semites.
What can Brown do for you?
Vote conservative Republican and you don’t have to deal with these rashoyim !
you just have to deal with other rashoyim!
Amen
Given how low the turnout was- is there any chance that Nina Turner might decide that she actually does have majority support in the district (just that most people stayed home), and therefore decide to run against Brown in the general election as an independent?
It is too late for her to get on the ballot as an independent
https://codes.ohio.gov/ohio-revised-code/section-3513.257?fbclid=IwAR1vE5xwvFS7yPl_7oWO8AgHx8CGoaNAWXYaXpyJqqhyT20-cw7RKbYDAN0
Interesting law, that you essentially can’t run as independent after losing a primary (since the deadline for filing to run as an independent is always before the primary). Are there a lot of other states like this? I know I’ve heard of situations where candidates lose a primary and then run as an independent- Joe Lieberman doing it in 2006 and winning is the one that comes to mind. Very interesting that this isn’t always allowed.
Of course that poll showing Turner with 50% (she finished with 45%) was paid for by — Turner! She probably should have commissioned another one that showed her so far behind it would suppress turnout.
As a Cincinnati resident I can finally say “Good Job Cleveland”.
Every vote counts rabbosai. Wherever you live, make sure you go out and vote on election day!
Way to go Cleveland!!!! I am so proud to be Jewish and so proud of all of you!
How could Turner get more votes but still lose???
Turner did not get more votes:
Shontel Brown (D) 37,666
Nina Turner (D) 33,420
Source: https://liveresults.ohiosos.gov
Please save this article and repost it before every election!
I’m always disheartened when I hear that people in the community don’t vote cuz “it doesn’t really matter anyway”
agreed. votes matter!
The Cleveland Jewish Community are the real Guardians of Cleveland!!
What are you talking about? Nina condemned the BDS movement and Hamas. She said that she supported Israel. I don’t know how you can just deem someone to anti-Semitic and against Israel just because you feel it. The ONLY thing Nina Turner said was that we should condition aid to Israel to make their government follow some basic guidelines. That is common sense, and claiming it to be anti-Semitic is ludacris and reactionary.
Saying we will give taxpayer money to any foreign country unconditionally is irresponsible. But claiming this sensible position means she is anti-Israel is an outright falsehood. I don’t know why some folks refuse to see any nuance in the conversation
If you think that Tweeting this, while Israel is getting bombarded with Hamas rockets, while running for a seat in a district with 100,000 Jews is a good strategy, then you deserve to lose.
https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1392328115909664774
Never mind her rant about evil outside money after her self-inflicted loss (despite getting even more outside money than Brown).
kol hakavod Jews! let us hope this will be the norm in 2022.
We may not have any nice restaurants, but at least we know how to come together and vote 🙂
The gamblers/ odds makers had Turner’s shares way overpriced. That’s way the polling was so off kilter. Turner could not overcome the Jewish vote nor the Hillary voters who are StillMad, that Bernie Bro hurt her race.
Why don’t jews like the squad? Is it because two are muslim?
Are you serious?!?
I have nothing against Muslims and some of my favorite trips have been to Muslim lands and discussing our differences and likenesses with Muslims.
But Israel is G-ds gift to the Jewish nation. Full stop. Jews have lived there for thousands of years and calling Jews colonizers in our own homeland is the ultimate insult. If you’re going to call Israel out when the country is facing a barrage of Hamas rockets from land that was foolishly unilaterally handed over, you’re not going to win the Jewish vote. Let that be a lesson to the Democratic party as they go down a path of anti-Israel rhetoric.
+1
Why is its so hard to let the Jewish people who have suffered in exile for 2000 years to let them have one (1; Uno) small country the size of New Jersey? There are 10’s if not 100’s of Christian countries and 10’s of Muslim country, each of them 10 times the size of Israel. Israel lets all its citizens have full rights and is the most moral country on earth. Israel supports and allows all religions to practice and the Muslims actually have more rights than the Jews on the most holy of Jewish sites, the Temple Mount. There is no reason for anti-Semitism.
So, the Jewish community still voted for an Israel critic. Basically, a ‘lower’ intensity anti-Jew. Great job guys!
Nice job!!
Beautiful. Thank you for sharing.
I really enjoyed this article. It shows that activism works. If people pull together and vote!