The Mega Millions drawing tonight has climbed to $1 billion for the first time in history. You won’t actually win a billion dollars. If you take the lump sum you’ll get “only” $565 million. And federal, state, and local taxes will probably cut that down by another $170-$270 million depending on your state.
But it’s still more money than most of us even know how to dream about.
Loading ...Yes, we all know that the odds of winning are nil. But there are perhaps no bigger dreams that $2 can buy.
I’m always perplexed at people who buy multiple tickets. The last time I bought a lotto ticket was when the Powerball made it to 10 figures and the person in front of me in line spent $100 on Powerball tickets. Whether you have 50 tickets or 1 ticket the odds of winning are statistically insignificant. The dream I had with my 1 ticket was the same dream that he will have with 50, except I was only out $2. If you buy multiple tickets I’d love to hear your logic though.
Will you buy a ticket to dream for $2? And what would you do if you won the jackpot?
Give more tzedaka
5 tickets provides 5 X the chance of 1 ticket ! It’s really simple math !
Which still equals 0 chance
Wrong
Sorry 1/58,440,268 (.000002%)
0x2=0
Will always be -$2
Dan, if the chances were 0, there wouldn’t be a winner
There wasn’t a winner:)
An interesting take would be that by buying 50 tickets, hopefully you’ll have won at least a smaller consolation prize. That can more than make up for the $100 spent. Those consolation prizes lower the odds significantly….
This is incorrect. There are more outcomes than just jackpot or nothing. Statistically, if you look at all the payouts and odds, when the lotto is this high, your estimated payout is $2.18 per $2 spent (based on the lump sum). This is one of the rare times this value is positive.
False. Expected value is -$0.82 with lump sum after taxes.
https://www.businessinsider.com/mega-millions-jackpot-is-it-worth-buying-lottery-ticket-2018-10
Less than that with a shared winner as is likely.
What do you mean, wrong? Do you prefer ‘effectively zero’? Or ‘as close to zero as matters’?
If you buy one ticket, the odds are one in 292,201,338 – aka 0.00000034%. If you buy ten, the odds increase to ten in 292,201,338 – aka 0.0000034%. Yes, you lose one zero – but you can see just by looking that the chances of winning are *still* essentially zero. if you buy 10,000 tickets, odds increase again – remove three zeros, so now you have 0.0034% – still terrible odds and you’re out $20,000. Get it? Dan is right, as usual. I’m planning to buy one, just for the fun of dreaming. But no more than one.
@eric, how do you know who he/she’s replying to? Maybe he/she’s replying to @chanoch
Since it’s only a dream, I’d rather dream and keep my two dollars.
So why buy at all?
The odds are 1 in 302,575,350. Wow so you increased your odds to 5 in 302,575,350. What a waste of $10
No need to buy for than I ticket. All one needs to do is make a “kaili” and Hashemi does the rest. If it’s meant for you to win, you’ll win with I ticket. If it meant for you to loose, then you will loose the lottery plus the $100 on the tickets.
Here’s a good method of increasing your odds. Spend $2 on the ticket, and give the $98 to charity.
Agree
Dan if I win, can I still go to Antartica? I’ll make sure to pay…
If you win you can buy the boat……
LOL
I think the chances of winning are better than 1 in a billion. So statistically not a bad move at this point.
Guessing you didn’t click “Nope, the lottery is a tax on those who are bad at math”
But the more tickets sold, the more likely it is you have to share the winnings with others, so it’s still statistically worse.
@shmo, you are unfortunately incorrect for several reasons.
1. A ticket costs $2
2. You don’t pocket a billion dollars or even close to it. It’s probably less than $400M, i.e. read the post
3. You may have to share your winnings
The official odds are 1 in 302,575,350
If I were to win that kind of money, after taking care of my basic family financial security, I would look to make an impact on Jewish Education. I would specifically look into setting up proper infrastructure, support and affordable mental and emotional help, as it seems like these are sorely needed but neglected (or unaffordable) issues.
eg, thats a very commendable response. I get tired of “I’d give it all to charity” or “I’d give it all to the poor”. The vagueness in those responses tell me the person isn’t sincere. I happen to agree with you with targeting specifically supporting Jewish education as 1. Children are the future of our religion. 2. So many children are becoming none observant or in bad situations 3. Many can’t afford tuitions. and as a result the children don’t attend and/or the teachers/rebbeim don’t get paid on time
I bought cause I think it’s 50-50 chance to win. It’s either a “Yes” or a “No”…
That’s rediculous
Similar to the answer some would give on the question “What are the chances of you meeting a dinosaur on the street tomorrow morning”. 50/50?
take the trip to antartica
If I win I am buying Dan and his wife a trip of his choice. If I am in a good mood I will even through in JJ and his wife.
That’s very generous. Will you fly him on Spirit Air to his destination? ha
I think the logic to buy more than 1 ticket is the same logic to buy 1 ticket. The statistical difference between owning 1 and 0 tickets is also essentially 0. It would be $2 cheaper to not buy a ticket and instead dream of tripping over a bag of gold bars someone leaves anonymously on your doorstep.
When you hold a $1BB lotto ticket you dream big.
Do you dream every night of gold bars?
LOL. Actually….sometimes. Am I the only one? 🙂
guessing you weren’t active in the US mint days
Personally, I think the Lottery is only out there to destroy people, both winners (except of me of course) and non-winners, Lot of people don’t work and don’t proceed in life because there subconscious tell’s them that they can 1 day win the lottery, and how winners destroyed there lives, you can watch on YouTube, (there are no statistics on yidden winning the jackpot, it might be different….וד”ל)
And yes I also chose to dream for 2 dollars….
Of course 10% for tzedaka probably more. Set up trust funds for all my children and grandchildren and finally retire to israel
Judith Rosenfeld, vague response. What type of charities or foundations do you plan on setting up?
Give lots of tzedaka
Give more Sedaka
I vood like to buy benzys herring for my ganse mishpooche for life.
I’d buy a whole lot of Visa gift cards at Staples with my Ink card for the points, Is there anything else to do with such a windfall?
There’s a lot of interest in this drawing so if you won you’d probably have to share. And I mean like, really, who wants to have to share 500 mil? You’d probably only wind up with 100 mil. Just enough to change your life and the lives of many others. But that’s about it.
Will help build a Wedding plan, that it should cost around $5000 max for Heimishe people to marrie of there children
Sorry, I usually refrain from doing this; How about funding English education in Heimishe schools/cheder.
Heimishe Chadorim should not be teaching English. Klal Yisroel has never placed trust in “Velt” when educating a young child, rather in our One Hashem.
As a person nears the time when he will need to earn a living, he should be taught a trade, whatever that entails, in a holy environment.
Teaching secular studies at a young age is not at all necessary to make a living. It has negative effects on pure Neshamos. This has been time proven over the lifetime of our nation.
Zal, then with all due respect I would strictly avoid giving Tzedaka to those schools who won’t teach ABC and 123 from kindergarten and up. Though Abraham Lincoln isn’t in the Torah, it’s important to learn some basic history fundamentals and favorable traits of the founders of our nation.
Better than being on welfare and shnoring
Wait, are you serious? LOL (but actually sad).
i am with u!!
How about a split the pot between all dansdeals readers.
Each person puts in $2 for 90,000 chances of winning $11,000
Dan will keep the change. ($10m)
I just ran the numbers for the expected return on a $2 investment in a $1B Mega Millions drawing. Once you include Federal taxes, your expected return on the $2 investment is not more than $1.55. In fact, it is probably considerably less than this figure because, even if you win the big prize, it’s possible that you’ll have to split the jackpot. In short, each additional ticket beyond the first is expected to lose you money.
Actually, what you did was read @BuyingOne’s link here: https://www.dansdeals.com/miscellaneous/mega-millions-now-mega-billion-will-buy-ticket-winnings/#comment-1379046 or maybe something similar.
It’s not so complicated to run the numbers and only requires a basic understanding of statistics. So, no, I didn’t go read an article or blog post until after I had done my own calculation.
dans point basically is he just enjoy’s to dream about it!!
FYI, don’t buy a mega millions ticket in NY. You’ll cry if you win and realize you have to pay over 50 million dollars to the city and state.
Buy one in Florida like I did. No state or city income tax.
– [ ] And don’t say if you win a billion, you have no problem paying 50 million in taxes. 50 million is a lot, no matter how wealthy you are!
– [ ] If you are unsure how much 50 million is, click on the link and watch the video, and then tell me, you wouldn’t rather have that, over the “privilege” o paying more than 10% of your money to the government!
– [ ] https://www.fraseryachts.com/en/yacht-for-sale/saint-nicolas/
Should I cry now, or only after I win…..Lol
Nick, neither. If you have a parent or close relative (who you can fully TRUST!), allow them to take full ownership of the ticket and redeem it (as a resident of a no tax state).
If you live in NYC you will pay 50% in taxes regardless of where you buy the ticket. In fact if you buy it elsewhere and don’t already file taxes there you will have the added burden of filing taxes in an additional state.
I buy for bug jackpots (and occasionally otherwise) because the statistics are the SOMEONE will win, it just won’t be me most likely. But you have to be in it to even have a chance!
I will buy a pie of pizza with large fries.
Renovate my parents house or buy them a new 1
That would be the deal of all deals. $2 for $1 billion.
Stop following @dansdeals
I found it interesting that the ultra wealthy people at Pesach programs that I’ve spoke at were the most interested in every seminar.
It makes sense though as they have the most to gain from earning and burning strategies.
Just kidding, you’re probably right!
define “ultra wealthy”
People who spend 6, 7, or 8 figures per month on their credit cards and wanted to know how to best optimize that.
Good problems to have 🙂
This is the problems I want to have….
Don’t we all.
I saw this comment last night and didnt know what to make of it, then this morning I was driving and noticed a billboard saying something to effect of this “Discount luxury is an oxymoron, paying full price is a moron moron” I thought that was a good line 🙂
I would build the first chabbad house on Mars…..think big people.
If you want a minyan, you have to thing bigger than mega billion
More detailed statistics here — https://www.businessinsider.com/mega-millions-jackpot-is-it-worth-buying-lottery-ticket-2018-10
Will go on Shlichus
I would buy another lottery ticket.
I bought a ticket for Mega Millions & Powerball. I would payoff all my debt & that of my kids. Set up trust funds for family. Give more Tzedakah. Stop looking for cheap flights and just buy tickets whenever & wherever I want to go.
When Jan Koum sold Whatsapp to Facebook for $22BB he told them they had to close the sale by a certain time as he had a Lufthansa first class mileage ticket booked and he wasn’t about to lose it!
Lolololololol!!!!!
Hashem.
Yes, Batya? Go ahead. I’m listening…
I would use all the money to buy more tickets and win more money ad infinitum!
love that lol
That’s one great way to lose it.
And statistically how many lotto winners have lost it all
Front row seats behind the dugout on Tuesday night 1st game of the world series is currently $25,000.00 on StubHub…..
GO SOX!
I agree with you, Dan, %100 it pays the $2 for the sweet dreams! I didn’t even realize how much we think that “maybe” I will be the lucky winner until a friend of mine asked me if he can give me $1 and be a %50 partner if we win! Would you buy it with a partner? I think most people won’t. We REALLY DREAM!!
I just bought a ticket with a partner
Buy 1 ticket.. the person wins ,not the ticket!!
Probably will order some sushi
Take thousands of kids to Europe over time for real world education.
If you know when and how to play it could be great investment https://www.foxnews.com/science/elderly-couple-games-lottery-wins-millions
I will swipe my credit card non stop so I can earn miles.
Bought my employees tkts, asked for one favor in return if they win. Please give me some time to find replacements before you quit. #beamentch
And for all those who are trying to increase their chances of winning by buying multiple tickets just buy a Powerball ticket instead of a Mega Millions you’ll increase your chances of winning Millions of dollars by millions because the chances of winning the Mega Millions is 1 in 302,575,350 where as the Powerball is a 1 in 292,201,338
I’d walk into my bosses office and tell him to go F$%# himself….oh wait, I AM the boss….now what am I going to do!? ….marbeh nechusim marbeh darga.
reminds me of the ralph kramden honeymooner episode where he though he won alot of money so calls hes boss and tell him “i quit, and one more thing youuu are a bum”
if the odds would be high it would never reach this amount, the fact that it reached 1 Billion after millions purchased tickets proves to you how low the odds of winning
I would definitely charter a kosher cruise to Antarctica 😉
Walking last Saturday morning, I found a $20 bill on the sidewalk. I thought, How ironic it’d be if I used my found $20 to buy winning lotto tickets! – The Mega was ‘only’ $667MM last Tues but I still couldn’t bring myself to buy any tickets. – I explain to people that, if (almost) every man, woman and child in the US bought a ticket, you’d have to be the ONE that fate smiled upon. – I think I’ll keep ‘my’ $20 and buy some chocolate bars that have better odds of making me feel good!
It’s funny no one said this yet but I bought more than one ticket because…One for the dream and the extra tickets for the rush of checking them once the number is picked. (If you match some of the numbers you can also win some $$).
Oh, Dan. Don’t get our hopes up that way. As for me, I’ll cross that bridge when I buy it…
I meant the bridge! I already bought the ticket!!!!
You dont buy a ticket to win. You buy a dream for a short time.
It’s hard to fathom those odds but think about sitting in yankee stadium and catching a fly ball, or being chosen randomly for a prize. Super low chances chances but that stadium is a bit under 50,000 people. That’s only .01% of your actual chance of 300,000,000
I’ve had back to back games I’ve caught foul balls at Yankee stadium. I’ve found the way to do it now tho. Gotta put the odds in your favor for that. Maybe the same could be said in winning the lotto. Gotta get to work before the next drawing. PS if I win 1 mill goes to dan
Buy a helicopter and hire a crew ! Goodbye traffic
התרת נדרים
I’d hire people to pick up my shabbes package from Tomchei Shabbes
I’d build a shchuna with 1 story houses…
would it be possible to fly every yid in klal yisrael to ertz yisrael with this windfall? also are their any estimates to how much it could cost to rebuild the beis hamikdash to the likes of binyan Hurdoos?
I believe it is wrong and borderline kefira to purchase more than one ticket. I have won many raffles and I never buy more than one ticket.
Wats the point……it’s not like your winning anyway
Better off saving your money and putting it towards something with an immediate pleasure like a chocolate bar or something
I’d set up a shell company in the Cayman Islands and claim it that route. Then I’d figure out a way not to just hand out money, but to employ frum ppl with decent paying jobs in USA and israel. And then I’d buy a yacht and seven mansions and sink into depression
I would make sure my children are set with the basics of life, pay off all my debt, move to Israel, go to seminary while my husband would go to yeshiva and set up a trust fund for the rest to be used for tzedaka. I know, totally boring.
Winning that much money would probably be more of a detriment to my happiness. Many winners end up with new bigger problems brought on by the newly found wealth. Most of us should look around and see the great blessing that Hashem bestowed upon us.
If anyone would like to dream for $2 (or more), you can please wire me $2 for every dream you would like. Please include your name. There is a far-off chance that I may become a multi-trillionaire and decide to give you a few billion as a gift for wiring me $2.
Not saying that no one should buy one, but I find myself laughing at some of these comments because some people really do seem to believe that their chances of winning have significance.
If I offered you one try, for the cost of $2, the chance to win 1 Billion Dollars if you can get a hole in one in a professional golf course (assuming you have no golf experience), would you blow the $2? Would you try 50 times for $100?
Well, your chances of winning that golf challenge are way better than winning this lottery.
I love dandeals, but this is the most worthless discussion I can remember
Yet the most interaction by the community
Do I get a tip
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=96338.0
Only buy one
https://youtu.be/9lE_bbY03BU
I won’t be buying a ticket because I don’t want to win the lottery. Winning would probably cause more harm than good for myself and my family. Not that buying a ticket means I’m winning but I honestly believe the lottery is a curse.
That’s a realistic person! Everyone just tries to avoid that thought…
@Dan
Dan, What would YOU do with the winnings?
https://www.instagram.com/p/BpPfhyQhC_R/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=jf4cq5fqrt9w
@Dan you have the same opinion like the lubavitcher rebbe.